![]() Back to adversary-based military planning ![]() It was notable that a day after Erdoğan’s announcement, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán signlaled that he too would now greenlight Sweden’s bid. But the counterbalance is that the alliance’s allies rarely want to be seen as being out in the cold on key issues. The episode does raise concern that NATO could be beholden to nationalist self-interest in the future – but this is always a risk in a consensus-based organization of sovereign countries. Since he won the election, there is no real need for him to oppose NATO membership for either country. He knew that taking a nationalist line on Sweden’s and Finland’s perceived lax attitude toward enemies of the Turkish state would play well to his base. Polls had him lagging behind the main Turkish opposition candidate ahead of the May presidential vote. His opposition to the Nordic states’ ascension to NATO should, I believe, be viewed in the context of a reelection bid for the long-serving Turkish leader. It doesn’t appear that it was a serious suggestion – and would in any case be a nonstarter, as the European Commission itself acknowledged.Įrdoğan’s about-face on Sweden allowed him to look magnanimous on the international stage, but it was likely rooted in domestic politics. ![]() But it appears that was just spitballing on behalf of the Turkish president, wanting to see what additional concessions he might gain for approving Sweden’s bid. Much like what happened with Finland’s earlier successful bid, Erdoğan had been holding out over what he perceived to be concerns over Sweden’s “harboring” of members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK – an organization that Turkey, among others, has labeled a terrorist group.īefore announcing that Ankara would no longer stand in Sweden’s way, Erdoğan had suggested that his compliance on Sweden might be conditional on the European Union’s looking favorably on Ankara’s own bid to join the economic union. ![]()
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